Prospect of semiconductor industry-waiting for dawn in the dark

10/29/2022 11:00:08 AM

The global semiconductor industry has gone through 3Q11 inventory destocking, resulting in a sluggish peak season for 3Q11 semiconductor industry. 4Q11 Due to the debt problems in Europe and America, people are afraid of layoffs again, so their consumption attitude turns to be conservative. For semiconductor factories, they also start to adjust the inventory level downwards, so as to minimize the inventory of finished products and spare parts.

However, there is still a certain demand for terminal technology products, but the water level of semiconductor inventory has dropped to a little too high, so urgent orders will become the most frequently heard term from 4Q11~2Q12.

◆ Prospect of semiconductor industry in 2012

In 2012, the development of global semiconductor industry is still facing challenges, and the main problems are still focused on the financial turmoil that may be caused by European debt and the subsequent crisis of slowing down consumer demand.

Since the peak repayment amount of European debt (mainly from Italy and Spain) falls from 02 to 04/2012, the European debt problem will still exist in 04/2012. Therefore, IBTSIC believes that semiconductor factories will still maintain a low level of attitude towards their own inventory, and people's consumption power will be tightened partly due to expectations. Therefore, IBTSIC believes that the dark period of the global semiconductor industry will last until 2Q12 before there is a chance to come to an end. However, if the European debt problem is not handled well (for example, the financial system is in turmoil, which will affect the demand of terminal consumption), the semiconductor industry will still be faced with a conservative attitude after 2Q12.

IBTSIC thinks that the European debt problem in 2Q12 has a chance to come to an end, so the semiconductor industry boom has bottomed out in 2Q11. However, due to the expected psychology, the semiconductor factory has lowered its inventory level. If the European debt problem comes to an end in 2Q12, there will be a wave of semiconductor inventory replenishment at the beginning of 2H12.

◆ Global semiconductor output value (month)

The global semiconductor sales amount in 01/2011~09/2011 was 226.13 billion yuan, YoY+2.8%, and the global semiconductor output value in 09/2011 was 25.76 billion yuan, which was an increase compared with that in 08/2011, mainly due to the economic recovery in Japan, the increasing demand for IC products in Japan and the increasing demand for IC related to handheld devices.

2H11 Global semiconductor sales are still under great pressure, mainly due to the austerity psychology caused by the European debt problem, which further affects people's consumption demand. IBTSIC believes that global semiconductor sales will decline in 4Q11, and 1H12 will be shrouded in the European debt crisis, and the performance of global semiconductor sales will also be treated conservatively. If the European debt problem is eased, the global semiconductor will have a chance to recover after 2Q12.

◆ Global semiconductor output value (year)

SIA currently estimates that the global semiconductor output value in 2011 is USD 308.7 billion, with YoY+3.49%. However, with the general situation of global prosperity in 2H11 weakening, IBTSIC revised down the global semiconductor output value in 2011 to US$ 303.2 billion, with YoY+1.64%.

Looking forward to the global semiconductor output value in 2012, it still depends on the result of solving the European debt problem. On the whole, the global semiconductor industry in 1H12 is still not optimistic, and 2H12 has a chance to recover. SIA estimates that the global semiconductor output value in 2012 will be 317.8 billion US dollars.

◆ Global semiconductor equipment index

The North American semiconductor equipment index has gone through seven cycles since it was counted in 1995. Among them, the North American semiconductor equipment order YoY has the leading index (which is also the leading index for the industry to expand). According to the observation of the past several semiconductor equipment cycle cycles, IBTSIC can see the low point when the equipment order YoY falls to-70~-80% and the index falls to 0.5~0.6.

In October/2011, the equipment index was 0.74, and the equipment order amount was YoY-41.06%, which was close to the low-grade area of historical indicators, but it still took 1-2 seasons to bottom out. Therefore, IBTSIC estimated that the semiconductor equipment index in North America could bottom out as soon as 1Q12 or 2Q12, and then it could enter the starting point of the eighth cycle.

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