The localization rate of chips will increase by 8% in 2015.

10/29/2022 10:46:15 AM

Tencent technology broadcast this meeting live.

The following is a speech by Jiang Shoulei, Vice President of Shanghai IC Industry Association:
Thank you, the host. Thank you for giving me this opportunity to give you a report. Let me talk about the development trend in general. Here is a ten-year comparison of the world, which is from the former country. I will talk about Shanghai incidentally. The global Shanghai is $300 billion, which is China's sales, this is Shanghai's, and this is the RMB at the back. I will mainly show you later that we are far from the world, but the growth rate of the whole country in about ten years is about eight times that of 2001 in 2010. This is our equipment, manufacturing, packaging and testing three parts. In the past, we were mainly packaging and testing, with a large amount of chip manufacturing and few designs. We are now designing more and more, which means we have more and more products.

Recently, we are doing a statistic. The proportion of ZTE and Huawei in domestic design companies is increasing year by year, and domestic products account for about 50%. This is the sales growth chart of the national design company, which belongs to high-speed growth. This is the national operation in the first half of this year. On the basis of 2009, it grew rapidly last year, and the first half of this year was not bad. This is the growth chart of Shanghai in previous years. I take this out to draw your attention to the national reduction of 11% and Shanghai reduction of 12%. In fact, our Intel branch arrived in Chengdu in 2009, which accounts for about 5% of Shanghai. If you throw it away, the factor will decrease by about 7% year-on-year. Of course, Shanghai grew by 33% last year.

This is the growth rate of design enterprises in Shanghai, which was 46% during the financial crisis in 2009 and 68.9% last year. In the first half of this year, it increased by 36%, which was the situation in Shanghai in the first three quarters. Recently, everyone is saying that the condition of integrated circuits is not good, and it is declining. This phenomenon does exist, but basically, orders have decreased since September. The operation of Shanghai in the first three quarters can be said to be better than that of the whole country. Basically, it is still relatively stable. It is estimated that there will be some decline in the fourth quarter, mainly due to the relatively large decline in our processing and OEM parts. Not to mention that this is from various industries in Shanghai, and it is also a relatively fast growth in design.

This is what we said in 2012. Actually, it was done by some international analysis companies until 2015. I don't know if you have noticed recently. The national analysis institutions have said that there will basically be a rebound, and the growth next year will not keep falling on this basis. Maybe it will almost go up in March and April next year. By 2015, this will be more than 390 billion. I saw yesterday that it will be more than 390 billion in 2014, but this analysis institution is different.

In terms of market growth, during the period from 2011 to 2013, the average annual growth rate of the world semiconductor market was 6.1%, of which the growth rate in 2011 will increase from 31.8% in 2010 to 5.4%, and if there is any increase, it will be 7.6% in 2012 and 5.4% in 2013. From the perspective of product structure, these sensors, actuators and microchips may grow more.

The 12th Five-Year Plan of China has not been announced yet. Let's discuss the basic concept. By 2015, it will be 300 billion yuan. Of course, according to the situation in China, it is predicted according to the annual growth. This is based on the development of China market and China industry. Another international analysis organization now also has a saying that there will be fluctuations in the development of integrated circuit industry in the future, but the fluctuations will not be as big as before, but relatively small fluctuations. On this basis, China should have been growing.

In this area, the design industry will continue to maintain rapid growth. In 2010, it was announced by China Semiconductor Industry Association that it was 36 billion to 38 billion US dollars, but it was 50 billion US dollars at the time of design. Our official announcement in Shanghai is 11 billion, but it should actually be 15 billion. Because everyone knows that the sales company like Reddick is very good, with billions, but only tens of millions are reflected in our statements, because all of them are sold overseas. In fact, Shanghai last year was more than 15 billion. We are doing a job recently, that is, discussing with the boss, asking the government for preferential policies on the land in China, and Chinese mainland has a lot of manpower. In the end, the government wants nothing, and we will give you tax exemption. In the end, you have to support the government without giving a sales figure. Why do you support you? I sometimes tell this directly to the design company. Of course, it is understandable. This is the problem of our actual value-added tax. I don't know if there are any design companies here, but we are promoting them recently. This is in conflict with taxation, and we use the method of export tax rebate. State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China, in particular, has given us special support. Anyway, as long as your products are not processed in China, you can get export tax rebates. Once the export tax rebates are exported, domestic consumption income will be obtained in the process of re-export. It was said yesterday that this is not a fake export, but our industry is a special case. This State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China is very clear, which we have won through years of hard work. Moreover, the 17% tax refund is more than the tax paid by everyone, because the value-added tax you usually pay, the cost of your human resources and the cost of your software can't be reflected in the middle of your normal operation, and the corresponding response comes out in your tax refund part.

The national market will be like this by 2015, which will exceed 120 billion. This is the proportion of consumer electronic wireless products in our product structure, and this automobile electronics is developing rapidly. This is an analysis of the scale of major application markets, including RF and GPS. Of course, this is not a formal product, and the concept of Internet of Things has the fastest growth rate. There are two concepts here. One is that the Internet of Things is a concept personally affirmed by * *, which was put forward by a branch in Wuxi where our Shanghai Microsystems are located. The whole country is engaged in the Internet of Things. Because the internet of things can network everything and connect objects, this growth is great. Mobile terminals are also growing rapidly, and everyone has an opinion on cloud computing. I have a statement about the concept of cloud computing, which is of course half-joking, saying that cloud computing is in a fog. However, since this concept is relatively clear all over the world, it is certain that there will be a gradual and clear development in this area. This is from Shanghai, and it will be 100 billion by 2010, which is about the same as the growth rate of the whole country. Last year, the national total was 144 billion, and by 2015 it will be 300 billion, almost doubling. Shanghai's 53.7 billion to 100 billion is almost double. We think this should be a little more, which is only done according to the current plan.

Generally speaking, the design industry will develop at a high speed, and the manufacturing industry depends on the situation of several big companies. Packaging testing is definitely developing steadily. Why does chip manufacturing depend on the situation of big companies? We have been through the development of the center international (sound) by ourselves, and we know that there was an earthquake some time ago. And how will TSMC develop next, because I discussed with a leader of TSMC, and I said, when will your 12 inches come? He said it wasn't that I didn't want to come, but that Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ing-Wen wouldn't let me come, which may be a special policy. But recently, the voice of 12 inches is getting louder and louder.

Next, I will talk about why we have a relatively large development, and the gap between supply and demand in China has brought huge market space. As you can see, it is predicted to reach 1.2 trillion yuan in 2015, accounting for almost half of the world. 400 billion dollars worldwide. But the part we can produce ourselves is 300 billion yuan, and the gap is getting bigger and bigger. I have another figure that I was going to put on it, but the two figures are inconsistent. Let me tell you about it. Last year, our sales were 144 billion RMB, and the foreign exchange we imported was 156.9 billion US dollars. Therefore, when we wrote a report to Beijing, we were afraid that the government would be confused and always said that oil imports were severe. In our report, we said that oil and steel combined were not as much as foreign exchange used in integrated circuits.

Then let's talk about 3300 in 2015, including the parts we process abroad. Our own products are few, and most of them are imported. What does this question mean? Portrait of a big country like China, if this is the case in the complicated environment of the world, can we maintain this situation for a long time? I don't think so. Both the central leadership and people in our industry should strive to change this situation.

Let me report to you that our preferential policies for integrated circuits were originally the same as those for software, but the value-added tax of the software has not changed until now, but our integrated circuits have not been implemented. The United States has taken the lead in Europe and Japan to keep up and resolutely opposed our preferential policies. They suggested that it is ok if you engage in preferential policies, and our imports are also subject to 3% VAT. In this case, the central Committee held a special meeting at that time, of course, it was not the plenary session of the central Committee. The scale of our integrated circuits was not large. If we let go, we would be extremely big at any time. So I made up my mind to give in later. So up to now, the equipment in the United States is under our control technically. Let me talk about the so-called technology transfer contract and equipment transfer contract that we signed with foreign countries. There is a clear stipulation that our equipment cannot be used in the military industry, and our equipment cannot go to Iran, part of it can't go to North Korea, and it can't go to Iraq. These are all additional conditions.

I don't know if you have noticed the news recently. One of us was set up by some unknown organization in the United States and taken away in Hungary. This person is an American-controlled integrated circuit that our country needs. He couldn't catch it if he didn't go to the United States. Later, Hungary said that I had this circuit here or not. Later, I thought Hungary could go, but it turned out to be a trap. There is another old example. The boyfriend of Beijing's big-headed daughter was sentenced to 100 years' imprisonment for illegally selling equipment to our country, the United States. So I said that our country can't be like this for a long time, although the current situation is more complicated.

This means that by 2015, the localization rate of chips will increase by 8 percentage points compared with that in 2010. This is about technology. Now our center's international 45nm technology can be produced in small batches, which is the order of the national 025 special project. We are now producing 55 nm products. The 40-nanometer chips of several companies have come out. In other words, from several companies in Shanghai, the recent development speed is beyond the norm. Sales in 2009 was 800 million, last year was 2.5 billion, and in the first three quarters of this year it was 1.8 billion. We all have certain skills in this respect, and it is particularly gratifying to report to you that during the financial crisis of our design company in 2009, some reporters called and said that some people analyzed that we had to dump half of our public and private designs and asked me what I thought. I said nonsense. What is the basis for people to ask you? My basis is the market in China. It can be said that last year basically developed as I expected. We have nearly 200 design companies in Shanghai, and less than 10 of them have really fallen out. Later, several of them have grown up in other places.

One company grew up in Kunshan, another in Wuxi and another in Wuhan. What is the truth? Because he has the skills and team, the product will come out soon, but because the capital chain was broken, people refused to pay during the financial crisis, and now they can. What I said is not entirely right. I said at lunch just now that LED and solar energy should have a good future, which is from the overall situation. But at present, I think the least investment risk is integrated circuits. What's the point? With the rapid growth of design companies, there are few people who really can't survive, even in difficult situations. We have a design company whose technical level is not high, and it has reached more than 100 million yuan and 200 million yuan this year. Our market is too big. Not much to say about solar energy. Recently, everyone has read the news very badly. LED, we don't have many things that are mainly the core.

Finally, let me talk about why we are still developing rapidly and will not decrease. Please pay attention to our country's series of policies on this industry. How many of the seven new strategies are involved in the policies of the whole industry? It doesn't seem much. Nothing but software and integrated circuits. Solar energy is supposed to come out, but now the country can't. Not only ours came out, but also the the State Council No.4 document came out at the end of January. In 2000, it was No.18 document, and now it is No.4 document. Document No.4 is early. As we all know, Document No.1 is about agriculture every year. Document No.4 is regarded as very important by the central leadership. The first policy is fiscal and taxation policy, and two exemptions and three reductions, and half five exemptions and five reductions are all national policies.

Just now, the State Administration of Taxation issued a special article on the policy of export tax rebate for integrated circuits. Our customs also issued a special document on the duty-free import policy of imported raw materials and spare parts. What's the point? These departments all feel the importance of this. Recently, we are still discussing whether the equipment and materials should be expanded, and the packaging test is being used now. It is estimated that the expansion may be great, and the whole industry chain enjoys this policy.

The second investment and financing policy is not available in Document No.18 this time. Although the details have not yet come out, it is not known how much the state will take. However, some information has been well received. The Shanghai Municipal Government gave some money to a foreign investment company to set up a joint venture investment company specializing in integrated circuits, and the National Development and Reform Commission also subsidized it, and now it has been formally established.

There is also a news I know. The company ranked 119th among the top 500 parts in China is going to invest 100 billion yuan in the whole industrial chain in Anhui for ten years. Of course, it has just started to move, and we are not good at evaluating it. If famous enterprises can invest in our industry on a large scale, we will have hope, because now we only rely on the government, and this investment and financing will get better and better. I'm not bragging. Our industry has the lowest risk. Loans are available and the risk is low. Bank policy, there are two special projects, actually more than, 01 special project, 02 special project, 03 special project accounts for a large proportion, 04 special project has CNC machine tools. Our Shanghai municipal government has been discussing the policy of implementing Document No.10 in Shanghai in advance. One is the importance of the big market and a government, not just the state. Governments in various places attract investment whenever the economic conditions are relatively good.

Therefore, in this respect, we expect that China's integrated circuit industry will be a great development in the next decade.